Website for Nathan Moore, Physics, Winona State University
Sent to MN Outdoor news, November 2017. I was too hard on the WI DNR. They’re in an impossible situation. The only solution right now is a vaccine (which doesn’t exist) or extirpating the WI deer herd, which is politically impossible.
The news today (Nov. 22) is that 2 deer out of 2500 tested were positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD). Given that CWD is effectively endemic across the river in Wisconsin, and given further that the WI DNR has basically given up on controlling the disease, it seems reasonable to assume that people in SE MN now have a 1 in 1250 chance of harvesting, eating, and feeding to their children, a deer with chronic wasting disease. The public health story is that this is an isolated incident, don’t worry, your deer is safe to eat.
For reference, the one-year risk of death from a motor vehicle accident is about 1 in 8900! Death by car crash is also an isolated incident. http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/mortality-risk
If you’re a hunter, read the (2004) review from the Centers for Disease control that looks into CWD transmission to humans! The conclusion to that review is that while it is theoretically possible to develop Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease from eating CWD-positive venison, the statistics aren’t presently large enough to make numerical estimates of risk. http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/6/03-1082_article
The good news, if you want to call it that, is that CWD in humans seems to take 20-40 years to develop - so if you got a deer this year and you’re 40 go ahead and eat it! Heart disease or cancer will probably get you before CWD does. Don’t even think about feeding that meat to your kids though.
I sent this longer version to our local state Senator, Jeremy Miller. He replied quickly and courteously.
Dear Senator Miller,
Congratulations on your re-election! I appreciate your work on behalf of Winona State.
As you probably know, the DNR announced today that there were 2 deer of 2500 sampled in SE MN that tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD). CWD seems to be endemic across the river in Wisconsin, and so rather than an isolated case, the data seems to me to be an indication that CWD is present in deer at a rate of about 1 per 1250 harvested animals. For context, the one-year odds of dying in an automobile accident are 1 in 8900, so harvesting a CWD infected deer is 7x more likely than dying in a car wreck (and consider how much effort our society puts into car safety! Reference, http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/mortality-risk)
The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) has done some epidemiological work on CWD that you might have seen. A reminder, CWD is called “Scrapie” in sheep, and “Mad Cow” in cows. There have been some cases in England in which Mad Cow disease was transmitted to humans, where it is then called “Creutzfeldt-Jakob” disease. While it can take 20-40 years for the disease to develop in humans, it is invariably fatal, and there is no known cure. http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/6/03-1082_article The conclusion to this CDC article seems essentially to be that while it is theoretically possible to develop Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease from eating CWD-positive venison, the statistics aren’t presently large enough to make numerical estimates of risk.
Deer hunting is a significant part of the state culture, and a significant economic driver for our local community. Who though would want to harvest a deer, feed it to their family, and then later see their children cut down in their 30’s when Creutzfeldt-Jakob metastasizes?
It seems like the WI DNR has essentially given up on controlling CWD in their deer herd, and so by normal migration, the number of CWD positive deer in MN will only increase in future years. I think that for deer hunting to continue to be viable, hunters should be able to easily submit a sample for testing. Right now, my understanding is that all of the samples from Minnesota are overnighted to a lab in Colorado for testing. Submitting a sample like this is practically infeasible for all but the most paranoid of hunters. I think the UMN or MN DNR should make a CWD testing service available to (or perhaps required of?) all MN hunters. This would be a public good that would allow hunters to eat venison without worrying about future health risks. Mandatory testing of all deer would also allow the DNR to employ fine-grained strategies to slow the spread of CWD through the state’s population of deer.
My apologies for sending such a long email. Best regards for your thanksgiving!
Nathan Moore Winona, MN